Is It Likely the EU Will Dissolve After Brexit?
On Thursday, June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. The vote was split, with a majority of voters in Scotland wanting to stay in the EU. Although the voters in Northern Ireland also voted to stay, the majority of people in England and Wales voted to leave.
This decision has been greeted with mixed feelings, both internally and in the EU. Since the UK is not set to officially leave the EU until 2019, it is too early to tell what the repercussions will be. What will the EU look like without the UK and what are the possible repercussions to the UK?
When looking at Brexit, we must consider the media. Not only is there an increase in using social media to spread news and ideas, the facts can be easily distorted. Some schools that offer online masters in political science courses, like George Washington University, have published articles recommending caution and research when it comes to politics. Although there are a variety of sources, it has become increasingly easy to pick and choose the ones that agree with you, as well as to look for soundbites, rather than good content.
The EU Without the UK
At this point, no other countries have chosen to leave the EU, but there is concern that they will follow. Several other members praised the UK for their vote while others expressed concern. The market did quite poorly in the days following the Brexit vote. Brexit will be a two-year process, to allow the EU and UK to create an exit deal. It has been pointed out that the loss of the UK is serious; it is a global power. However, it is important to remember that the original European Union can be traced to the 1950s, with the United Kingdom joining in the 1970s. This suggests that the EU can function without the UK.
Impact on the UK
With the wide range of feelings about Brexit, there has been some suggestion the UK itself may be changed forever because of Brexit. Most notably, there has been a movement by SNP leaders to have a second vote for Scottish independence before the UK is officially out of the EU because Scotland voted to stay by a significant margin. Other potential fallout for the UK from Brexit would be Northern Ireland, whose citizens also voted to stay, leaving the UK to rejoin Ireland. Additionally, European trade will have to be renegotiated. British Prime Minister Theresa May has said that the UK will not continue to operate within the EU’s single market.
International relations and other concerns dealing with trade will be ironed out during the two-year Brexit period. Although there will be changes in the political landscape of Europe, the EU is made up of twenty-seven other countries. These nations will still be able to trade and interact with the United Kingdom, they will just have to renegotiate terms. It looks like Europe, and the rest of the world, are waiting to see how Brexit will pan out.
Founder Dinis Guarda
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