The current conflict in Iran has made several structural vulnerabilities in commodities markets impossible to ignore.
Take, for example, the gap between China’s emergency oil reserves, estimated at between 900 million and 1.3 billion barrels, and India’s 20 to 25 days of import cover. In 2024, over 84% of the crude oil and 83% of the liquefied natural gas transiting the Strait of Hormuz flowed to Asian destinations. The strait’s effective closure has turned energy storage strategy from a technical matter into a policy emergency.
A ceasefire announced on April 7 briefly cut oil prices by more than 15% and pushed gold to $4,705, but both quickly reversed. Peace talks held in Islamabad over the weekend of April 11–12 collapsed after 21 hours without agreement.
President Trump declared a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on April 12, effective April 13, pushing prices back above $100 per barrel. The vulnerabilities the conflict has exposed in energy stockpiles, supply chain dependencies and capital access remain unresolved.
For business owners and investors whose capital is concentrated in long-term equity positions, the liquidity pressures run in parallel. EquitiesFirst, which provides financing against existing shareholdings, is among the firms that provides owners and shareholders with access to liquid capital to navigate this type of market volatility.
“The speed of this commodity shock is unlike anything in recent cycles,” said Al Christy Jr., founder and CEO of EquitiesFirst. “Businesses and investors who held comfortable equity positions three months ago may now be asking how to access working capital quickly.”
Energy Strategy in a Fractured Market
The International Energy Agency’s 32 member nations collectively hold 1.8 billion barrels in stockpiles and government-mandated reserves. They have agreed to release 400 million barrels to exert downward pressure on prices, a drawdown that depletes finite buffers without resolving the underlying supply disruption.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned in early April that supply constraints would intensify: “The next month, April, will be much worse than March.”
The exposure across member states is uneven. Japan and South Korea each hold reserves covering more than 200 days of imports, but depend on the Strait of Hormuz for a larger share of their total oil than China does.
Australia entered the crisis with stockpiles covering only 30 days of average imported oil supply, one third of the IEA minimum.
India, which sources roughly 90% of its crude from abroad, held enough for 20 to 25 days. Japan reported gas inventories of just three weeks of total consumption following the shutdown of Qatar’s LNG export plant.
The Impact on Gold
The same logic of reserve depletion is reshaping sovereign gold positions.
Sovereign gold reserves had been a core pillar of the post-2022 asset diversification trend: gold surged past $5,000 an ounce earlier in 2026, nearly tripling from its 2022 base as central bank buying, running at roughly a quarter of annual mined supply, surged after the freezing of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves.
The Iran war has reversed that. Turkey’s central bank sold approximately $8 billion in gold reserves, around 60 tonnes, over two weeks in March as energy import costs and dollar demand surged. Gold has retreated around 18% from its peak. A brief recovery to $4,850 followed the April 7 ceasefire announcement before the collapse of peace talks on April 12 pushed gold back below $4,750.
Russia’s central bank — a net seller through 2025 to fund wartime expenditure — has added to the selling pressure. Oil-importing and war-funding nations alike are liquidating bullion to cover dollar-denominated costs, a structural headwind that analysts at J.P. Morgan believe will ultimately resolve in gold’s favour: their year-end target stands at $6,300.
“What we’re seeing in gold is a good example of how interconnected these pressures are,” Christy Jr. said. “Countries that had been accumulating bullion for years are now selling it to fund energy imports. That changes the demand structure for multiple asset classes simultaneously.”
Natural Gas and the AI Energy Bind
Natural gas sits at the intersection of two demand crises at once. As a transition fuel, it is the primary energy source for Asian economies cut off from Hormuz-bound LNG. As a power source, it is the fuel of choice for the AI data center build-out reshaping electricity grids in the United States.
At CERAWeek 2026, held in Houston in late March, energy executives described an industry reshaped by AI: power procurement conversations that once centred on tens of megawatts were now routinely running to gigawatts and beyond, across sectors from hyperscale cloud to defence in less than two years — a demand signal that is straining gas infrastructure across two continents simultaneously.
U.S. natural gas production currently runs at approximately 110 Bcf per day. Demand from data centres and LNG exports alone is projected to grow by up to 45 Bcf per day over the next decade, according to a recent analysis by a16z. An increased focus on nuclear energy build out can’t offer near-term relief: new plant construction timelines exceed a decade, and the supply chain for new reactors is not yet in place.
The Need for Liquid Capital
Taken together, the oil hoarding, the gold liquidations, and the AI energy bind point to the same conclusion: liquid capital is scarce and getting scarcer at exactly the moment businesses and investors need it most.
For those holding long-term equity positions, the appeal of financing tools that unlock capital without forcing a sale could rise in proportion to the pressure.
Securities-backed lending, where capital is obtained against equity holdings, is one such approach. Firms like EquitiesFirst, which specialize in this type of financing, could see an increase in demand.
The April 7 ceasefire provided a narrow window of market relief before the collapse of U.S.–Iran peace talks on April 12 and the subsequent U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz erased most of those gains, with oil back above $100 per barrel by April 13.
The underlying Hormuz access question remains unresolved, and the structural pressures on energy supply, critical mineral sourcing and business liquidity could very well intensify before they ease.
Author
Peyman Khosravani is a seasoned expert in blockchain, digital transformation, and emerging technologies, with a strong focus on innovation in finance, business, and marketing. With a robust background in blockchain and decentralized finance (DeFi), Peyman has successfully guided global organizations in refining digital strategies and optimizing data-driven decision-making. His work emphasizes leveraging technology for societal impact, focusing on fairness, justice, and transparency. A passionate advocate for the transformative power of digital tools, Peyman’s expertise spans across helping startups and established businesses navigate digital landscapes, drive growth, and stay ahead of industry trends. His insights into analytics and communication empower companies to effectively connect with customers and harness data to fuel their success in an ever-evolving digital world.
