US-China Trade Truce Fuels Localized Tech Development Amidst Ongoing Rivalry

A one-year truce in U.S.-China trade relations is prompting both nations to intensify their focus on domestic technological advancement. Analysts suggest this period will see each country doubling down on homegrown innovation, particularly in critical sectors like semiconductors and artificial intelligence, while underlying strategic tensions persist.

Key Takeaways

• Investors should focus on quality exporters and R&D-intensive tech stocks aligned with national localization efforts, managing risk based on scenario probabilities rather than headlines.

The Semiconductor Race

Computing power is central to the artificial intelligence race, with semiconductors being a core component. In China, the domestic chip giant SMIC is positioned to benefit from U.S. export controls and expanding capacity, potentially receiving more orders for advanced node manufacturing. This development is expected to bolster AI semiconductor development within China.

Energy for AI

As AI technology advances, the demand for energy to power data centers is growing. Projections indicate that China could possess significant spare power capacity by 2030, potentially exceeding global needs for data centers. Companies focused on energy self-sufficiency, particularly in power equipment for coal, nuclear, and hydro power, are emerging as key investment themes in the Asian equity market.

Robot Hardware and Commercialization

Beyond software, both U.S. and Chinese companies are competing in the hardware applications of AI, with a particular focus on humanoid robots. Chinese companies are actively planning for mass production of humanoid robots, with supply chains preparing for significant output. While projections vary, suppliers are aggressively expanding capacity, with potential customers including major players in the robotics field.

Navigating Volatility

Despite the long-term innovation outlook, the near-term market focus remains on U.S.-China trade talks, especially concerning rare earth exports. The current truce is considered fragile, and the ongoing competitive confrontation suggests that rolling negotiations, truces, and periodic flare-ups will likely characterize the relationship. While U.S.-China tensions can cause short-term corrections in Chinese stocks, technology hardware and semiconductor companies have historically shown resilience, often rebounding within a month after initial declines.

Sources

• A U.S-China trade truce means more localized tech. Here’s how to play it, CNBC.

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